Export markets are recovering but not yet sustainably
According to data from General Statistics Office, a stronger recovery in export orders in March helped footwear industry getting export revenue of 1.7 billion USD, the highest level since the beginning of the year, increasing total exports in the first quarter 2024 to 4.85 billion USD, an increase of 11.7% over the same period last year. If including handbag export turnover of 866 million USD (up 5.2% over the same period) in the first quarter of 2024, entire leather and footwear industry hits a turnover of more than 5.7 billion USD.
Exports grew by double digits in the first quarter but Vietnam Leather - Footwear - Handbag Association (Lefaso) said that market difficulties still remain because total demand has not fully recovered, Vietnamese businesses are still closely monitor market information to have appropriate production and business plans, making the most of opportunities from markets with Free Trade Agreements (FTA) to increase tariff incentives.
Not to mention, a series of regulations on ecological products, extended producer responsibility, supply chain traceability, carbon emission reduction requirements for manufactured products... are approved by manufacturers. EU imports are creating big challenges for supply chain links, including Vietnam.
Along with footwear, in textile and garment sector, according to Mr. Cao Huu Hieu - General Director of Vietnam Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), total world textile and garment demand in 2024 is expected to be at 715 billion USD, a slight increase compared to 2023 but still lower than 2022.
Therefore, the group's key task in 2024 is to consistently implement proposed solutions in the best way and continue to monitor and forecast situation to respond flexibly.
In all cases, when identifying long-term difficulties and ineffective conventional solutions, we need to think about problem of restructuring. Review organizational model, optimize apparatus, minimize rate of indirect labor and focus on market work.
With wood processing and export industry, by the end of the first quarter of 2024, according to statistics from General Department of Customs, wood and wood product exports earned 3.4 billion USD, an increase of 18.9% compared to the same period in 2023. Of which, export value of wood products is estimated to reach 2.3 billion USD, up 22.9% over the same period in 2023. A favorable start in the first months of the year with order increase, wood and wood industry enterprises speeding up production to keep up with export schedules. Which have opened a positive signal and brought expectations to Vietnam's wood industry in 2024.
Although early signs of 2024 are quite optimistic, however, according to Mr. Do Xuan Lap - Chairman of Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association, in the US market, regulations on origin of raw wood are becoming stricter; US Department of Commerce is amending and supplementing a total of 22 contents related to a number of regulations in anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations, including ways to identify some new subsidies such as export insurance, debt cancellation, direct taxes...
In EU market, EU Anti-Deforestation Regulation (also known as EUDR) of European Union will take effect in December 2024. Vietnam's regulations on determining origin of wood do not currently have specific regulations. Indian market, applying new factory evaluation standards, BIS standards, applied in early 2024, causing difficulties for Vietnamese enterprises. Meanwhile, in Japanese market, requirement for Vietnamese wood and wood products exported to this market to use wood sources of clear origin is increasingly high.
Overall implementation of many solutions to support import and export of goods
A report from Ministry of Industry and Trade said that in the first quarter of 2024, goods exports are estimated to reach 93.06 billion USD, up 17% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2024, exports will grow strongly and evenly in all three product groups: agriculture, forestry and fisheries; manufacturing and processing industry; mineral fuel.
According to experts, in 2024, Ministry of Industry and Trade targets export growth at 6%, corresponding to an export turnover of 377 billion USD. To complete this goal, average export turnover in each remaining quarter of the year must reach 94.67 billion USD - a challenging number.
Ministry of Industry and Trade also commented that, in general, Vietnam's import and export activities in 2024, especially exports to key markets such as Europe and America, will have both advantages and face challenges.
Accordingly, in terms of advantages, existing FTAs with partners/markets continue to have a positive impact, maintaining Vietnam's advantages in trade and investment activities. In addition, world market demand in general and European and American market regions are gradually recovering because inflation has begun to tend to decrease from the end of 2023 and is likely to approach target level of Central Bank set for 2024 (ECB and FED - 2%).
The fact that industrialized countries continue to promote strategies to diversify sources of supply, diversify supply chains and diversify investments will help Vietnam become an important production and export center in global value chain. Countries in Europe and America promote development of green economy, digital transformation and circular economy, opening up many new cooperation opportunities as well as providing a lot of credit and technology support to Vietnam.
Regarding difficulties, Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the global economy is entering a new period with many risks, challenges and difficulty in predicting; economic growth of the world and European-American countries in 2024 is forecast to be lower than in 2023. In addition, geopolitical conflicts continue to prolong and instability continues to pose a risk spreading to other areas.
Trend of deglobalization is continuing to rise strongly. Protectionist policies of countries are increasing day by day. The fact that countries diversify their supply sources outside of China, focusing on a number of partners near the market and partners equivalent to Vietnam such as Turkey, Mexico, India, Indonesia,... will increase competition in Vietnam's export markets...
To put effort into exports in the second quarter of 2024 and the remaining months of the year to complete the 2024 plan task of 6% export growth, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan said, in his role as the leading agency in management and administration of import and export activities, Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to closely monitor market developments and change partners' policies to propose appropriate solutions for development and diversify traditional export markets and new markets.
At the same time, continue to promptly inform industry associations about developments in export markets so that enterprises can promptly adjust appropriate production plans and orient their search for orders from markets; Regularly maintain trade promotion conferences with Vietnam Trade Office system abroad.
In addition, direct Vietnam Trade Office system in market areas to regularly update information on foreign market situations; Regulations, standards and conditions of foreign markets that can impact Vietnam's import and export activities and recommendations for localities, associations and import-export enterprises.
On the other hand, effectively exploit FTAs, accelerate negotiations, sign FTAs and new economic links to diversify markets, supply chains and boost exports; developing logistics services; support enterprises to strongly shift to official export associated with brand building; strengthen capacity on trade defense, improve legal system, institutions and inter-sectoral and local coordination mechanisms;...

L. Giang
Source: Vitic/ congthuong.vn